OSRS Dry Streak Calculator
Calculate the odds of going dry on any OSRS drop and estimate your expected streaks.
Drop Rate Inputs
Drop chance per roll: 0.20%
Probability Benchmarks
355
Kills for 50% chance
1,178
Kills for 90% chance
1,533
Kills for 95% chance
Results
82.24%
Chance of Going Dry
17.76%
Chance of At Least One Drop
Expected Drops0.20
Notes
- The dry chance is (1 - drop rate) raised to the number of kills.
- Expected drops equals kills multiplied by the per-roll drop chance.
- RNG can still vary, so dry streaks happen even after the expected drop count.
Formula
P(dry after n rolls) = (1 - 1 / dropRate)^n
FAQ
Why is my dry chance still high?
RNG does not guarantee drops. Even common drops can be missed over short samples.
What does expected drops mean?
It is the average number of drops you would see over many trials with the same kill count.
Is this accurate for multiple rolls?
Yes, as long as each roll has the same independent drop chance.
OSRS Dry Streak Calculator Guide
Learn how drop rate probabilities work and set realistic grind targets.